Navigating Challenges in a Changing Geopolitical Landscape

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Trump's Return Could Transform Southeast Asia Dynamics

The return of Donald Trump to the presidency has the potential to significantly impact Southeast Asia, presenting ASEAN with complex challenges and opportunities. As a key player in regional stability, ASEAN plays a vital role in the Indo-Pacific geopolitical landscape.

Trump's previous presidency saw dramatic shifts in U.S. foreign policy, characterized by a transactional diplomacy and "America First" agenda. Should this approach resurface, it could challenge ASEAN's cohesion amid South China Sea tensions, North Korea's global conflict role, and the intensified Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.

This scenario presents ASEAN a chance to bolster its strategic autonomy, strengthen economic ties, and position itself as a global mediator. This article examines Trump's potential impact on ASEAN, focusing on critical issues like the South China Sea disputes, North Korea's Russia-Ukraine war involvement, renewed U.S.-North Korea diplomacy, and ASEAN's stance towards the Quad.

Challenges in the South China Sea

The South China Sea, a crucial route for trade and resources, remains a contentious point. China's expansive territorial claims, represented by the "nine-dash line," have sparked disputes with ASEAN members like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia. During Trump's first term, the U.S. adopted a more assertive stance, conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) and strengthening ties with key ASEAN claimants.

While challenging China's regional militarization, these actions risked polarizing ASEAN, which values neutrality. A Trump 2.0 presidency could heighten tensions, possibly exacerbating divisions within the bloc, particularly among countries closer to Beijing like Cambodia and Laos. ASEAN's unity, a fundamental principle, would be tested under these circumstances.

North Korea's Complicated Role

North Korea adds complexity with reports indicating its troop support to Russia in the Russia-Ukraine war, signaling its alignment with anti-Western powers. This challenges ASEAN's traditional diplomatic stance with North Korea, based on cautious dialogue. Trump's previous North Korean strategy, highlighted by summits with Kim Jong-un in Singapore and Hanoi, produced mixed results.

Renewed diplomacy with Kim under Trump could engage ASEAN as a mediator, leveraging its neutrality. Hosting a U.S.-North Korea summit in ASEAN could enhance its diplomatic role but might attract criticism if minimal progress is made or global norms are undermined.

Quad's Influence on ASEAN

The rise of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) complicates matters. Comprised of the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, the Quad's focus on Indo-Pacific security raises concerns about ASEAN's centrality in regional diplomacy. During Trump's term, the Quad was revitalized to counter China's influence, and a second term could lead to further institutionalization.

While Quad initiatives align with ASEAN goals, their strategic implications risk alienating ASEAN states that prefer neutrality. The Quad's increased visibility could deepen ASEAN's internal divisions as members balance their relationships with both the Quad and China. To maintain its centrality, ASEAN requires skilled diplomacy and a clear regional vision.

Trump's Opportunity for ASEAN

Despite challenges, Trump's return could offer ASEAN opportunities to enhance economic and strategic autonomy. His transactional trade approach might facilitate bilateral agreements tailored to ASEAN economies. Revisiting the U.S.-ASEAN Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) or targeting infrastructure investments could strengthen economic ties.

ASEAN's multilateralism and non-alignment position it as a unique U.S. partner, capable of mediating conflicts and fostering growth. Trump's unpredictability could paradoxically empower ASEAN to assert its stabilizing role amid global uncertainty. ASEAN must navigate these dynamics carefully to avoid divisive conflicts.

The South China Sea remains a litmus test for ASEAN's principles of neutrality and consensus. North Korea's Russia alignment highlights ASEAN's need to enhance diplomatic mechanisms for global conflicts intersecting its region. ASEAN also needs to engage the Quad without compromising its centrality, requiring member unity despite diverse priorities and dependencies.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.

References

• Bateman, Sam. “The South China Sea: The Importance of Regional Cooperation.” The Diplomat, 2022.
• Chang, Andray Abraham. “North Korea’s Support for Russia: Strategic Implications.” Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 2023.
• Green, Michael J. By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783. New York: Columbia University Press, 2017.
• Medcalf, Rory. Indo-Pacific Empire: China, America and the Contest for the World’s Pivotal Region. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2020.

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