U.S. Must Fortify Southern Flank for Potential 2027 Pacific War

The Facts -

• China's growing influence in LAC threatens U.S. regional dominance.
• The U.S. must enhance defense ties and counter China's strategic moves.
• Effective coordination and investment can mitigate Chinese coercion.

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2027 War Readiness Week

The United States’ global power heavily relies on its role as a regional leader. However, the U.S. has often neglected its position in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The 2022 National Security Strategy highlights the Western Hemisphere's impact on the U.S., yet China is becoming a competitor in the region. Explore the National Security Strategy.

China's economic and military pursuits in LAC include funding for dual-use infrastructure like satellite ground stations and ports. These assets, like in Argentina and potentially Cuba, could be used in a Pacific War to gather intelligence and disrupt U.S. operations. Visit Reuters for more on China's satellite activities.

Why LAC Matters to the PRC

China's interest in LAC, often overshadowed by its focus on its "near abroad," serves as a crucial component in securing resources. Brazil, for instance, is a major recipient of Chinese investment. LAC supplies essential minerals like copper and lithium, vital for China's defense sector. For details on China's reliance on resources, view the World Bank report.

China's presence in the Western Hemisphere, like Russia's, offers horizontal escalation opportunities. The Primakov Doctrine is an example of this strategy.

Understanding the Risks

China's Western Hemisphere presence introduces risks for the U.S.: control over maritime chokepoints, dual-use space capabilities, and disinformation. Chinese firms own ports near the Panama Canal, posing a potential sabotage threat. Learn more about the geopolitical implications of ports from Foreign Policy.

China's space infrastructure, including the Espacio Lejano Research Station, provides strategic advantages. Discover more about China's Antarctic efforts in SpaceNews.

China may leverage its economic influence to shape political conditions in LAC, moving countries away from supporting Taiwan. For insights on China's economic strategies, visit the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bolstering Readiness in the United States’ Shared Neighborhood

The United States should enhance its military partnerships in LAC by integrating SOUTHCOM into Pacific war planning. Increased cooperation could thwart Chinese influence. Engaging in joint exercises like RIMPAC can strengthen ties. Read more about RIMPAC in Bundeswehr.

Efforts to counter China's economic pressure in LAC include amending Department of Defense training guidelines and collaborating with allies. The State Department could lead initiatives to evaluate risks from Chinese investments. Discover additional strategies in a CSIS analysis.

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