The Donroe Doctrine: Balancing US Influence and China's Growing Role

Recent shifts in the geopolitical landscape of the Western Hemisphere have prompted the United States to reassess its strategic priorities. Under the Trump administration, the 2025 National Security Strategy emphasizes the region's importance, introducing a "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dubbed this strategic approach the "Donroe Doctrine". While the U.S. maintains its status as a dominant force in the hemisphere, the increasing influence of China has prompted Washington not to take its strategic advantages for granted.

China's growing presence in the region doesn't aim to replace U.S. influence entirely. Its two decades of trade, investment, and diplomacy have solidified a significant foothold, making any attempts by the U.S. to reassert exclusive dominance challenging. The true test for Washington lies in distinguishing between genuine security risks and ordinary commercial competition, while offering economic initiatives that align with Latin American priorities. Two key sectors emerge as starting points: critical minerals and digital infrastructure.

Economic and Security Challenges

The port of Chancay in Peru exemplifies the complex dynamics at play. Inaugurated in November 2024 with a $1.3 billion Chinese investment, the terminal, managed by COSCO Shipping Ports, enhances direct trade corridors to Asia. For Peru, this development promises reduced logistics costs and potential regional hub status. However, Washington's concerns revolve around the control exerted by a Chinese state-owned entity over this strategic logistics point. U.S. officials have raised alarms about its possible intelligence or military uses, a concern accentuated by allegations that COSCO vessels gather intelligence for Beijing, which China has denied.

Sectors of Interest

Trade between China and Latin America illustrates the depth of their relationship. In 2024, China accounted for a significant portion of the region's exports and imports. Raw materials, especially copper, dominate exports to China, with investments in clean energy minerals and electric vehicle production rising. The region's wealth in critical minerals like copper and lithium, essential for electrification and batteries, presents a lucrative opportunity. Yet, much of this material is processed elsewhere. The International Energy Agency suggests that local refining could significantly boost Latin America's economic gains by 2035.

Beyond minerals, digital infrastructure presents another dimension of China's influence. Companies like Huawei and ZTE have been integral in building 5G networks and fiber-optic systems across the region. Research from GMF highlights the potential dependencies and risks from such collaborations, yet Latin American nations often find Chinese offers appealing due to competitive pricing and rapid implementation.

China's regional involvement continues to evolve. While sovereign lending reached its highest level in five years in 2024, today’s financing flows through national development banks, aligning with a restructuring of the Belt and Road Initiative towards smaller, more sustainable projects.

Strategic Approaches

Latin American nations are not aiming for equidistance between the U.S. and China. Instead, they pursue a multi-vector strategy, maintaining U.S. ties while diversifying partnerships. To address this, the U.S. should adopt a selective approach to risk and focus on concrete development opportunities. In the realm of critical minerals, U.S. and European partnerships could support local processing and industrial upgrades, offering Latin American countries a more comprehensive economic proposition than China's current model.

In digital infrastructure, a focus on resilience over exclusion could help. Providing financial support for secure networks, promoting open standards like Open RAN, and fostering technical exchanges on cybersecurity and investment screening are key components. A viable alternative to Chinese involvement must compete on multiple fronts, including price and delivery speed, beyond just security considerations.

The "Donroe Doctrine" faces a central contradiction: while Washington seeks to amplify its influence in the hemisphere, exclusivity is increasingly elusive. As China's presence grows, U.S. influence hinges on a balanced approach of risk management coupled with attractive economic incentives.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.