Trump's Potential Impact on US Climate Policy Limits

The Facts -

• Trump may withdraw from climate agreements like the Paris Agreement.
• Repealing clean energy laws is tough; tweaking them is more feasible.
• Despite Trump's stance, market forces will still boost renewable energy.

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As the U.S. braces for the possible return of a Trump administration, climate policy is clearly a major focus.

Donald Trump’s criticisms of clean energy hint at what's expected.

Exiting the Paris Climate Agreement

In 2017, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate accord, a 2015 global pact on climate change.

Now, he might not stop at the Paris Agreement. Trump could also seek U.S. withdrawal from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, a step that could drastically impact international climate discussions.

Exiting these agreements could shift climate leadership to China and halt significant U.S. funding provided under the Biden administration, including $11 billion to global clean energy initiatives.

Challenges in Targeting Clean Energy

While aiming to roll back clean energy policies, Trump may face hurdles. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act deeply embed clean energy investments into infrastructure.

Even with Republican control, repealing these laws is tough, as they benefit red states. Tax credits for electric vehicles and EPA pollution standards could be in jeopardy.

The Department of Energy’s Loan Program Office, with $200 billion capacity due to the Inflation Reduction Act, may also slow its pace.

Fossil Fuel Production

Trump promises to increase fossil fuel production through deregulation, but the U.S. already leads in crude oil output. Oil companies are focused on shareholder returns rather than expansion.

He may roll back regulations on emissions, such as the methane emissions fee, and fast-track LNG export terminal approvals which Biden sought to pause.

Markets and Clean Energy’s Future

Despite Trump’s renewable energy criticisms, nuclear power and market dynamics favoring cost-effective wind and solar could drive investments. However, a Paris Agreement exit and regulatory uncertainty could slow clean energy growth.

Inflation from Trump’s economic policies may offset benefits from potentially lower interest rates. The planet’s warming makes these issues critical.

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